Why Raila's awaited announcement is brewing a political storm

What more political trick does he still hold in his magic bag? That is the question political observers are grappling to crack ahead of Orange Democratic Movement Party Leader Raila Odinga's plan this week to announce his next political move after a devastating loss at the African Union Commission Chairmanship contest.

So intense is the discourse on Raila's next move in the political space, such that sharp opinions on whether the veteran politician, - whose art of metamorphosis after every loss is puzzling, should continue with opposition politics or join President William Ruto's administration has created a wedge in his own party.

Raila's foremost lieutenant and Siaya Governor James Orengo has urged caution in the pact with Ruto, warning that there should be restraint.

"I appeal that we take time and observe the outcome of the consultations. You cannot be someone who rushes to grab any political opportunity that presents itself," said the county chief.

He continued, "I speak as a veteran in Kenyan politics, and when I say we should not rush, I mean it. I worked during the times of founding President Jomo Kenyatta, the late President Daniel Moi—we didn't have an easy time with him—the third head of state, Mwai Kibaki, and former President Uhuru Kenyatta. Therefore, I understand politics well."

Raila has assured his supporters that he will next week announce a decision that will be guided by the interests of all Kenyans.

The Eastleigh Voice understands that Raila's move has caused a rift within his Orange party with respect to whether Ruto has a chance of getting reelected in the 2027 presidential contest or not.

Political Commentator Samuel Owida says Raila's announcement will have serious political ramifications. In his view, the opposition chief's announcement will shape realignments and even lead to the career loss of some politicians.

"Please do not take Raila's announcement lightly. He is known for brewing storms as a career. People are going to lose positions and loyalties are set to shift should he join either the government side or stick to the opposition," observes Owida.

Speaking during the party's 20th-anniversary celebrations in Busia, Odinga reiterated that he is still engaging in consultations before making his next political move public.

"I will continue consulting to ensure that we take a course of action that prioritises the needs and rights of Kenyans. We are not here to joke," Odinga said.

The anniversary event brought together top ODM leaders, including interim party leader Anyang' Nyong'o, deputy party leaders Simba Arati and Abdulswamad Nassir, Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Chairperson Gladys Wanga.

Intimate sources indicate that Raila is ready for a pact with Ruto in which he may have a senior government position created for him and his allies get appointed in state positions.

Raila's consultation tours come after Ruto announced that he had agreed with Raila – whom he now refers to as his "elder brother" – to enhance their working relationship within the broad-based administration.

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Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua notes that Raila will "definitely" make a decision aimed at satisfying his "solid" political base. He adds that Raila may either endorse a presidential candidate or decide to run himself to fulfil his long-held ambition of becoming Kenya's president.

Mokua adds that Raila is leading Kenya into a new political landscape that is likely to shape the 2027 presidential race.

"Kenya is about to witness multiple powerful political personalities align and re-align ahead of the 2027 general elections," he says.

Raila's political opponents are also interested and keen on his next move. Former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua, in a series of local media interviews, has said he is ready to work with him to remove Ruto from power. However, he is waiting for Raila to clarify his political stance – a move that will determine their future relationship.

"I do not understand Raila's intentions. It is his choice and decision to define which side of history he wants to be on," Gachagua said, adding that an opposition coalition could easily propel Raila to the presidency.

Ruto appeared to have set the stage for working with Raila at the burial of Baringo Senator William Cheptumo on Saturday, saying Kenya Kwanza has a similar agenda with Raila's Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition.

Gachagua also criticized President William Ruto, claiming that his political survival is currently dependent on Raila Odinga's influence.

"Life support machine ya Ruto ni Raila saa hii. Akizima, amekwisha," he claimed, predicting that Ruto would struggle to retain his position in the 2027 general elections. "Ruto atakuwa number 3 ama number 4 2027," he added.